Who Does Reform Hurt Most Politically?
I've been reading a lot and thinking even more about the historic passage of somewhat meaningful health insurance reform and its political impact. Because although the impact of the reforms will take years to assess and will undoubtedly change a great deal in the intervening years, the political impact is just a few months away. Simplistically, the primary elections will be pretty clear, I expect. The GOP, across the country and across the board, will take a hard shift right based on the outcome and the process in DC as viewed by the hard-core base. I expect the Democrats will shift slightly to center based on the fact that many Lefties will stay home out of disappointment that Obama's agenda has been so centrist. But it is at least possible -- depending on how the political leaders in the Democratic Party play this -- that the Left could be convinced to turn out in larger numbers to support continuing improvement of the reforms that have now begun. But when it comes to the General Election in November, things are far murkier to me. Assuming I'm right and the GOP tacks hard right and the Dems shift even slightly to center, independents may find themselves forced to vote for Democrats even though they might wish they were even more middle-of-the-road because the alternatives will be so outside the mainstream. That could result in smaller Democratic losses. Even if the Democrats energize the Lefties in their base, independents may still be unable to vote for Tea Party style candidates who are running on platforms of "No" and "Repeal Health Insurance Reform." But it is possible that I am misreading the public and its sentiments vis a vis health insurance reform. I was glad the Dems got the job done well in advance of the election because a lot of the near-term important effects of the law will be kicking in before voters go to the polls. That will give fence-sitters a chance to see how well this works and I suspect it will be the key deciding factor among independents and moderate voters in both major parties. If, however, the reform sputters, doesn't work well in its early implementation, and is susceptible to honest attack by the Right, that could shift a lot of sentiment in that direction. I guess my bottom line is that health insurance reform itself won't have as big an impact as its implementation and real-world experience. The Dems still have a heck of a job of governance and PR ahead of them but if they can keep things headed in the right direction and stay on message, the chances of dampening the GOP's predictable gains in the off-year elections increase dramatically. And if that happens, the GOP could be on its last legs and a new party might well find room to emerge for 2012.
